With the lack of demand in air travel not expected to rebound until late 2021 at the earliest, airlines continue to retire large four engine wide-bodies and the A380 is no exception. In my last post, I talked about the state of the A380 for European carriers Lufthansa and British Airways. For this post however, I will talk about what of the future of the A380 will be like for the Gulf carriers Emirates, Etihad, and Qatar Airways. Fortunately, there is more optimism about the future of the A380 for the Gulf carriers with the exception of one airline.
Emirates
To kick things off, let’s talk about the airline who made the A380 famous and that is Emirates. The Dubai based carrier recently began to reactivate their A380s to destinations such as Moscow and Toronto. But why are Emirates currently reactivating their A380s into service during a pandemic? The reason being so is these cities currently have a demand level that’s feasible for Emirates to fly their A380s to those cities. In addition, the UAE have stringent demands regarding how to handle COVID-19. Passengers who travel to Dubai on Emirates need to have a negative PCR test for anyone traveling into the UAE 96 hours before their flight. As a result, CEO Tim Clark believes that Emirates will be able to operate their network at full capacity by summer 2021 due to the UAE’s stringent requirements.
But the biggest revelation however is that Tim Clark admitted that he expressed interest in the A380neo by stating that “they got very close to getting a deal for an A380neo done.” So it’s safe to say that the A380s still have an important role with Emirates for years to come. Their rival carrier in Abu Dhabi also have a similar fate.
Etihad
Just like Emirates, it’s looking like the A380 will have a future with Etihad. Earlier in May, Vincent Frascogna Vice President for the Abu Dhabi-based carrier stated that the A380 “will fill demand in vital markets when the time comes.” As previously mentioned with Emirates, it does seem that Eithad can afford to keep their A380s thanks in some part to the fact that the UAE has some of the most stringent regulations in the world when it comes to COVID-19. The routes that the A380s would be utilized on would be Abu Dhabi to London and Manchester for the UK and to New York JFK for the US. Consequently, given how those three cities have good containment policies in place when it comes to containing COVID-19, Etihad believes that traffic would be easier to rebound on those routes that they can afford to keep the A380. Between Etihad and Emirates, the future of the A380 will be secure. Unfortunately for our next carrier, the future seems to be bleaker.
Qatar Airways
As previously mentioned earlier, the odds of the A380 surviving with the Gulf Carriers are higher than for other airlines with the exception of one and that one airline is the Doha based Qatar Airways. The airline’s CEO His Excellency Akbar Al Baker stated that “they are parking their 10 A380s and they will not return for at least a year, maybe never.” And given that most analysts believe that it will take two to three years for demand to return from 2 to 3 years, it doesn’t make sense for Qatar to keep them. In addition, Qatar has been planning to retire the A380 by 2024 even before COVID-19 hit. The reason being so is because Qatar is more committed to have a fleet that consists of wide body twinjets such as the 787, 777, and A350.
These twinjets are the perfect aircraft for Qatar Airways to lead the airline’s rebuilding of their network during the pandemic as opposed to the A380. This is due in part to Qatar's commitment in leading the industry in sustainable operations by keeping their fleet young with an average age of less than five years as well as not being dependent on a specific aircraft type (the average age for their A380 fleet is 5 years). The twin jets that Qatar Airways own fit the bill perfectly for their operations given that if traffic returns by 2022 at the earliest, the age of the A380 fleet would be 7 years. So as of right now, it looks like the future for the A380 is bleaker with Qatar due in part to the lack of demand and Qatar’s goal to be the industry leader in sustainability.
Conclusion
With the exception of Qatar Airways, it looks like the A380 will play a significant role for the carriers in the Gulf for years to come. Thanks to the UAE's stringent travel requirements when it comes to COVID-19, it should keep demand for travel to Dubai and Abu Dhabi high enough to warrant Emirates and Etihad to keep their A380s as more cities start to control the pandemic. But what do you guys think? Will the A380 survive in the Gulf States? Let me know in the comments below, stay tuned for part 3 that will go over the Pacific Rim and keep looking to the sky!
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