In this ongoing crisis with the COVID-19 pandemic, no one expects air traffic to rebound anytime soon thus leaving the future of the A380 and other aging widebody aircraft in doubt. With my last post, I talked about the aircraft’s future with the Gulf carriers Emirates, Etihad, and Qatar Airways. This post will conclude my series regarding the A380 and the main focus for this article will be the northern Pacific Rim territories which are more uncertain (save for one airline still flying their A380s).
China Southern
As previously mentioned, only one airline in the Pacific Rim territories are still flying their A380s and that airline in China Southern. Last summer, they were able to fly the A380 from Bejing Daxing International to London Heathrow as well as other destinations such as Paris, Vancouver, Amsterdam and Sydney. As for US flights however, the A380 won’t be flying to the United States anytime soon. Long story short, it’s safe to say that China Southern is more likely to keep their A380s for the time being. The other Pacific Rim airlines however is a different story.
Korean Air
While China Southern will more likely keep their A380s, Korean Air’s plans with the type is a little more uncertain due to lack of demand. Recently however there is some optimism when it comes to the future of their A380 fleet. First off, given that just like with China Southern, they are more likely to reactivate their entire A380 fleet due in part to an increase in traffic in North Asia as a result of their ability to contain COVID-19. As a result, Korean Air is able to reactivate one of their ten A380s from Seoul Incheon to Guangzhou, China. Combine that with China Southern and Emirates flying their A380s into Guangzhou, it has the rare distinction of being the only A380 hub in the world during the pandemic.
Another factor that is in favor of the A380 staying with Korean Air is their partnership with Delta. Due in part to Korean Air being part of the SkyTeam Alliance with Delta, the latter is utilizing Korean Air as an asset to expand their Trans-Pacific network. For example, let’s say Delta wants to add more flights to Seoul from Seattle and they need more A350s or A330-900s. They could move some of their A350s away from Los Angeles to Seattle and Korean Air could utilize an A380 or two to help lessen congestion at LAX and Delta would focus more on expanding at SeaTac. In addition, given that Delta doesn’t utilize a hub in San Francisco, Korean Air can give them access to SFO and they would send an A380 or 747-8 to utilize their capacity needs without using any of Delta’s aircraft. That way, Delta can put more emphasis on building their network in cities such as Seattle or Portland, which don’t have the airport size to warrant A380 service. However, with their competitor Asiana, the future is more uncertain.
Asiana Airlines
While the circumstances for Korean Air make it more likely for them to keep their A380s, Asiana’s is more uncertain. It does look like that the A380 might be on the way out. The reason being so is because even before the pandemic, Asiana was already in the process of moving their aircraft away from destinations such as New York and Los Angeles and utilizing the A350 as a replacement. In addition, Asiana Airlines recently are moving away from first class by utilizing business class. Given that their A380s still have First Class seats onboard, it wouldn’t make sense for them to sell them as business class seats on an A380 given how it would be consistent with the rest of their fleet.
Another reason why the A380 is more likely to be phased out from Asiana is because of their partnership with Star Alliance. Unlike Korean Air, which can fly an A380 out of cities such A380 out of cities such as San Francisco or Los Angeles, thus allowing Delta to focus more on expanding in cities such as Seattle, San Francisco and Los Angeles are already busy hubs for United Airlines. The amount of traffic that Asiana and United that would fly out of LAX or SFO wouldn’t warrant one A380 on that route due in part to United already having a strong presence utilizing more fuel efficient twin widebodies such as the 777 or 787. However, there is one thing going in favor of the A380’s future with Asiana. The fleet age of their A380 fleet is between 3-6 years old so their fleet is relatively young compared to other airlines and given how slow the secondhand market is at the moment, it would put them in a deep hole financially if they were to retire the type. The same can’t be said for Air Nippon Airways.
All Nippon Airways
Unlike the previous two airlines mentioned, the Japanese carrier ANA is readying a return to service in the future. Recently they orchestrated “flights to nowhere” in order to keep their A380 fleet current as well as give Japanese passengers the experience of flying to Hawaii. The reason why they are keeping their A380 fleet is mainly due in part to the fleet being young and the lack of demand in the secondhand market similar to the situation Asiana is in. But unlike Asiana, ANA has a potential advantage that makes the A380’s future more certain. Given Japan and Hawaii’s ability to handle the pandemic, there is potential for a “travel bubble,” which could allow safe passage from Japan to Hawaii. The latter has a strict testing program for anyone that travels to the island need to test negative prior to travel. US airlines such as United and Alaska ordered tests for their hubs to make sure safe travel to Hawaii is possible and given Japan’s reputation for their cleanliness during the pandemic, there is an opportunity for Hawaii to create a travel bubble to Japan, thus increasing passenger confidence. Consequently, if confidence increases, more people will be inclined to fly between Honolulu and Tokyo thus ANA believes it’s worth the risk to keep the A380 in their fleet.
Conclusion
In summary, the future of the A380 in the Northern Pacific Rim while uncertain, seems to have different factors in play that could keep them flying for these airlines in a post pandemic world. Between travel bubbles and the relatively young fleet age of the A380s for these airlines all work in its favor. But what do you guys think? Will Korean Air, China Southern, ANA, and Asiana keep their A380s in the future or do you think they will retire? Let me know in the comments below, stay tuned for part 4 and keep looking to the sky!
A wealth of info here, Jamsheed! Very interesting insights to the different circumstances each airline faces, and the opportunities for synergy provided by their respective alliances.