As 2020 comes to a close, there are going to be challenges on how the airline industry should evolve once the COVID-19 pandemic becomes manageable. Realistically it looks like it would take years to undo the damage the pandemic has done to the industry. However if this year taught us anything, expect the unexpected! No one last January would have thought that we would be in a global pandemic throughout most of the year and there could be a chance that the recovery from this crisis might go faster than expected. But there are a few storylines going into 2021 that I will definitely keep an eye on as next year progresses. So with all of that being said, here are my top 5 most anticipated aviation storylines going into the next year.
The Need for a Middle of the Market Aircraft
One of the biggest storylines heading into 2021 for me would be the increased demand for middle of the market aircraft. For those who do not know, the middle of the market (MOTM) is the market segment that consists of aircraft that’s between the narrowbody and widebody sector. Examples of these would be the Boeing 757/767 and the Airbus A321 series. With the demand of widebody aircraft expected to be slow for the upcoming year, this would a potential goldmine for Airbus and Boeing to tap into. The reason being so is because with domestic travel expected to bounce back sooner than long haul travel, MOTM aircraft are needed for certain city pairs that are economically feasible for narrowbodies such as the Boeing 737 but are far away. An example of a narrowbody route market would transcon flights between the East Coast and West Coast. Recently, Airbus is ahead of Boeing with the development of the A321LR and A321XLR. Airlines such as American Airlines, United, and JetBlue have ordered the type and will utilize them on the aforementioned transcon routes as well as some transatlantic routes.
On the other hand, Boeing has yet to announce their NMA which would be their answer to the A321LR/XLR. Last January, however Boeing decided to go back to the drawing board when it comes to their MOTM design. Hopefully by mid-2021 we can get an announcement from Boeing regarding their NMA due to the fact that the 757/767 series are showing their age and having a MOTM aircraft would greatly benefit Boeing for the next decade. Even Delta’s CEO Ed Basitian expressed interest in a potential MOTM aircraft from Boeing whether it’s the NMA or a 787-3.
Seattle's Emergence as a Oneworld Hub
Another big development that I’ll keep an eye on is Alaska’s entrance into the Oneworld Alliance and how it will impact potential post pandemic traffic growth. Recently, I wrote about how Qatar will start flying from Doha to Seattle starting in March 2021. Combine this with American Airlines announcing flights to Bangalore, Shanghai and London, as well as British Airways restoring service to Seattle it will be interesting to see it become an important hub for Oneworld. And given how Seattle Tacoma International Airport is making good progress with their new international arrivals terminal, it should be an exciting time to be a Seattle avgeek. There is however a caveat when it comes to how the US and other countries will be able to handle COVID-19 through vaccinations and testing. And with the emergence of travel bubbles, it’s going to be necessary to have stringent testing protocols if one is to fly overseas. Washington State would be more likely to follow New York when it comes to enforcing airlines to offer testing protocols in order to preserve international routes so I’m cautiously optimistic that airlines will follow suit when it comes to flights to and from SeaTac.
The Reintroduction of the 737 MAX
With the recent recertification of the 737 MAX from the FAA, more countries will follow suit and recertify the controversial aircraft. The key question is, will passengers have confidence flying the 737 MAX? Over a month ago, I wrote about what Boeing and their customers need to do in order to reassure passengers that the 737 MAX is safe. American Airlines lead the way with their marketing campaign by having their CEO Doug Parker post on his Instagram and LinkedIn talk about how they were able to ensure that the plane was safe for passengers to fly on. United CEO Scott Kirby followed suit with a post of his own in regards to the MAX. Hopefully more CEOs and airline marketing teams can follow suit and ensure passengers that they are safe when they fly on a 737 MAX. However there’s a catch. As more MAXs get back into the air, regulators, airlines and Boeing need to keep a good eye on the MAX to make sure that the plane won’t have any malfunctions with the MCAS and if someone see something and says something, it’s up to Boeing and regulators to work together to fix potential hazards. So with all that said, I believe that there will be better communication between all parties involved and the MAX will be a staple for years to come. And given the recent blockbuster deal Alaska made with Boeing for 23 of the type, the future of the MAX is bright!
The Future of the 777X
While the future looks bright for the 737 MAX, the 777X however is a different story. Thanks to the pandemic, airlines had to defer deliveries until 2022 at the earliest. And given the state of the world we are in, airlines would even consider pushing their launch back even further than that. However that doesn’t mean all hope is lost with the new twinjet. The widebody is still scheduled to test for potential certification by 2022, which means there will be a lot more test flights with the type in the next year. In addition, there is a possibility that more vaccines and better testing will be able to potentially revive demand for air travel, airlines that ordered the 777X wouldn’t be as inclined to delay it further than 2023 at the latest. The reason being so is that when better safety protocols are in place, more people will feel more safe booking long haul travel.
In addition, airlines that ordered their 777Xs could have the option to convert them into makeshift cargo planes shipping medical supplies such as PPE and vaccines. United Airlines actually experimented with this by flying Pfizer’s vaccines out of Brussels towards Chicago O’Hare on their 777-300ERs. Therefore airlines that have 777Xs on order should look into not delaying them and utilize them for vaccine cargo flights for the time being until the world recovers from the pandemic. After that, airlines can convert it back to carrying passengers. That way, Boeing can keep jobs in Everett because they would have the ability to ramp up assembly of the type due to the plane’s cargo hauling potential. Boeing employees need a lucky break like this after they made controversial decision to move all Dreamliner production to South Carolina.
The Potential Relaunch of Midwest Airlines
As the pandemic devastates the aviation community, one of the biggest things I’m looking towards in 2021 is what will be the future of Midwest Airlines’ revival. Last year, I wrote about how Midwest can make their reboot successful. Unfortunately, that was in a pre-pandemic market and these days, it’s hard for an airline to start up from the ground when the travel demand isn’t there. There is a way however Midwest can take small steps in a pandemic market. First off, it would be a wise decision for them to focus more on the routes that they initially would fly to which would be Milwaukee-Cincinnati or Milwaukee-Indianapolis just to name a few. That way, they can stay small until more regions open up and recover from the pandemic. It would allow Midwest to take their time in figuring out what aircraft they can buy as well as potential markets they can enter. But in the long run, I can see Midwest try to attempt to expand in a similar way as startup Breeze Airways by expanding into small or mid-size city markets. Midwest can do this as well with providing flights to cities such as Cleveland or Sioux Falls before the airline can move into larger city markets from Milwaukee. Thankfully, with aircraft such as the A220, it would be a perfect plane for Midwest to utilize during a crisis like this due to its small size and versatility. If Midwest Airlines plays their cards right during this crisis, hopefully whenever the pandemic ends, travelers in Milwaukee will have a hometown airline to rely on.
Conclusion
With all this being said, I’m looking forward to see how these 5 storylines are going to play out in 2021 and I’m hoping that with more medical advancements that can deal with COVID-19, we will start to see signs of life in aviation. But what do you guys think is your most anticipated storyline for aviation in 2021? Be sure to leave a comment below, have a great holiday season and keep looking to the sky!
Great article Jamsheed!